# Bus pol 4.2 42 | StudyDaddy.com

Assignment 2: Probability Analysis

A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.

Options:

FacilityDemand OptionsProbabilityActionsExpected Payoffs LargeLow Demand0.4Do Nothing(\$10) Low Demand0.4Reduce Prices\$50 High Demand0.6 \$70 SmallLow Demand0.4 \$40 High Demand0.6Do Nothing\$40 High Demand0.6Overtime\$50 High Demand0.6Expand\$55

Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:

Build Small: Low Demand0.4(\$40)=\$16High Demand0.6(\$55)=\$33 Build Large: Low Demand0.4(\$50)=\$20High Demand0.6(\$70)=\$42Determination of Expected Value of each alternative Build Small: \$16+\$33=\$49 Build Large: \$20+\$42=\$62

Submit your conclusion in a Word document

Assignment 2 Grading Criteria Maximum PointsThe diagram is accurate and labeled correctly. The diagram clearly illustrates the sequence of events and their probability of occurrences.32A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for the chance of probability and respective payoff is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate.28A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for expected value is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate.20Clear and concise statement explaining the decision and a description of elements that lead to the decision.20Total:100

## Calculate the price of your order

550 words
We'll send you the first draft for approval by September 11, 2018 at 10:52 AM
Total price:
\$26
The price is based on these factors:
Number of pages
Urgency
Basic features
• Free title page and bibliography
• Unlimited revisions
• Plagiarism-free guarantee
• Money-back guarantee
On-demand options
• Writer’s samples
• Part-by-part delivery
• Overnight delivery
• Copies of used sources
Paper format
• 275 words per page
• 12 pt Arial/Times New Roman
• Double line spacing
• Any citation style (APA, MLA, Chicago/Turabian, Harvard)

# Our guarantees

Delivering a high-quality product at a reasonable price is not enough anymore.
That’s why we have developed 5 beneficial guarantees that will make your experience with our service enjoyable, easy, and safe.

### Money-back guarantee

You have to be 100% sure of the quality of your product to give a money-back guarantee. This describes us perfectly. Make sure that this guarantee is totally transparent.

### Zero-plagiarism guarantee

Each paper is composed from scratch, according to your instructions. It is then checked by our plagiarism-detection software. There is no gap where plagiarism could squeeze in.

### Free-revision policy

Thanks to our free revisions, there is no way for you to be unsatisfied. We will work on your paper until you are completely happy with the result.